Weather or Not?
A Meteorologist’s Preview of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Dan Skeldon
Meteorology is by nature an “inexact science,” which is another way of saying that we get the forecast wrong on occasion, or in the worst case, more often than that. So, if a meteorologist can’t accurately predict what tomorrow afternoon may bring, is it foolish to believe any prognostication that looks ahead not hours, but months?
As a meteorologist for more than two decades, I’m as skeptical as anyone when it comes to the value of long-range forecasting, or anything that goes out beyond 10 days. But there’s one exception, and that’s the annual Atlantic hurricane outlook. It typically comes out in April or May, before the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season. It’s then updated in the middle of summer, usually in early August, to reflect the latest information and trends. And for the better part of the last decade, I’ve provided such a forecast to the Sea Isle Times.
Looking at the calendar, the time has indeed come for a look ahead to what 2022 may bring to the Atlantic Ocean, the East Coast, and to Sea Isle City between now and the end of the season in late November.
Seven is usually considered to be a lucky number. But it will likely be an unlucky number for someone if the forecast for the seventh straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season comes to fruition. It could be that we’re in a temporary cycle of active seasons. It could be that active seasons are the new normal due to climate change. But whatever the reason, that is the call for 2022, yet another season with a higher number of tropical storms and hurricanes than normal.
Let’s remind you what “normal” is, and keep in mind the normal numbers have actually increased as well over the last few years. For a long time, the expectation of a normal Atlantic season was for 12 named storms, six of which would strengthen into hurricanes. Due to the flurry of active seasons over the last few decades, those average numbers have each increased, to 14 named storms and seven hurricanes in a “normal” season.
It’s important to note that hurricane forecasts have come a long way and show a high degree of accuracy, at least with regard to how active or quiet a season is. Forecasting the number of storms has proved much easier than forecasting where those storms will go when they do indeed develop. For that, we have to wait until they form and are actually on the map, and then track them one at a time. While forecasters can sometimes pinpoint a more favorable year for, say, the Gulf Coast, the East Coast, or the Carribean to see a landfall, that is usually not the case. Perhaps the science will get us there one day, but we’re not certainly there yet.
Looking back to 2021, an above-average season was forecast, and Mother Nature certainly delivered. We used all 21 names on the list last year, from Ana to Wanda, but it was only one name, the “I” storm Ida, that defined the season. “I” has been the troublesome letter of late, with more “I” storm names retired than any other letter. Isaias, Isabel, Irene, and Ida are all recent examples. While “only” the remnants of what was once Hurricane Ida struck South Jersey on the first day of September last year, it spawned multiple powerful tornadoes along the New Jersey Turnpike corridor and brought deadly flooding to western and northern New Jersey as well. Thankfully, the South Jersey shore was spared the worst, but it still saw some gusty downpours nonetheless. And we were only 40 miles or so from a much worse fate.
Looking ahead to 2022, up to 20 named storms are possible, and that includes up to 10 hurricanes. Granted, expectations have diminished ever so slightly since the start of the season, due in large part to an expansive cloud of Saharan dust blanketing much of the waters of the tropical Atlantic. Those trillions of dust particles, besides providing for breathtaking sunsets if you’re in the tropics, also help to prevent tropical waves from organizing into tropical storms and hurricanes. If that dry, dusty air would hold serve all season, a thankfully quiet hurricane season would be our gift. But while that dust has been more dominant than expected and we’ve seen an eerily calm midseason lull void of any activity at all over the past five weeks, the dust is gradually expected to lift.
Remember that the peak of the Atlantic season is always from mid-August through mid-October, and that’s when we usually see more than 75% of the storms in any given hurricane season. For South Jersey, it’s late August through early October when we’re most prime for impacts from tropical systems or their remnants, which can be just as deadly, as Ida illustrated. If that dust does lift as forecast, the waters of the tropical Atlantic are generally warmer than average … well, of course, except for that stubbornly cool pocket of water right along the South Jersey beaches at times this summer. That warm water serves as the breeding ground for most hurricanes.
So, what will the storms be called this year? Well, we are already up to the “D” storm, as Tropical Storms Alex, Bonnie, and Colin were all weak, early-season storms that developed before the Fourth of July. Most notably of the three, Alex produced 6 to 12 inches of rain over parts of Cuba and South Florida in early June. The rest of the 2022 Atlantic names are: Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie, and Walter. Of all those names, Hermine may sound rather familiar. It was the storm that canceled many plans along the Jersey Shore over Labor Day weekend back in 2016, the last time this list of names was used. Hermine served as a good example of that aforementioned inexact nature of the science of meteorology, as the storm stayed far enough offshore to keep seas calm, although tempers certainly rose at the bad weather forecasts that were all bark and no bite.
Here’s hoping any Hermine this year, and any other storm for that matter, stays safely offshore. Remember, it only takes one landfalling storm to define a season. And if history is any indicator, you may want to remember the “I” name for this year, which is “Ian.”
HURRICANE CHECK LIST
There is a lot to do to get your family and your home prepared when a hurricane is coming. This checklist is just a start
1. Stay up to date on your risk. Hurricanes often happen near the coast, but not always.
2. Have a plan. Make sure everyone in your home knows and understands this plan. It should include where to move your car in case flooding is predicted, and where you can go if you need to leave your home.
3. Check your supplies. Check to make sure you have enough of everything you need in case you can’t make it to the store or you lose power for a few days. This list should include but isn’t limited to: medications, cleaning supplies, food, water, flashlights, batteries and pet supplies.
4. Pack a bag. Be prepared to leave quickly in the event that it is no longer safe to stay. Make sure you have all your medications, important documents, your driver’s license, cash, etc.
5. Know the evacuation routes. There are times when you have to leave immediately. Make sure you know what roads you are supposed to take and which ones to avoid in order for you to get quickly and safely out of town.
6. Those with disabilities or medical issues. If you might need extra help in the case of an emergency, prepare for it now.
7. Sign up for alerts and warnings. Download the FEMA app onto your smartphone and you can stay up-to-the-second with information in your area. Make sure you are signed up for all local alerts as well.
8. Prepare your home. Bring in outside furniture and anything that might blow away with strong winds.
9. Charge your electronics. If you lose electricity, you want your battery to be at full strength in case there is an emergency.
